News » 17.09.2025 - "The price of substrates will only continue to increase in the coming months"
The modern climate has led to some tense weeks for the global substrate industry. In the Baltic states, the last harvests are being brought in, but it is already clear that volumes are much lower than last year. Combined with rising worldwide demand, this could result in a global shortage of 10 to 15 percent, and that will be felt across horticulture. As one industry insider put it, "We're going to need every cubic meter we can get."
Less harvest
The lower harvests are a major concern. Ted Buis, former Commercial Director of Legro and now advisor to startups and entrepreneurs through NextSteps, remains closely involved with the substrate sector. While he doesn't want to pin himself down to exact figures, his outlook is not very bright. Poor weather in the Baltics means that at best only half of the normal 16 million cubic meters has been harvested, leaving a shortfall of about 8 million. "And the reality is probably even less," Ted explains.
At the same time, demand keeps climbing. Ted points to research by Chris Blok from Wageningen University, who estimated that global demand for substrates will grow from 67 million to more than 280 million cubic meters. That's an extra 3 to 4 million cubic meters per year. Growth doesn't happen evenly, and it's not always clear where demand is coming from, but the picture is unmistakable: global horticulture is expanding. Blueberry production in China, greenhouse crops in India, ornamental crops in South Africa—all of those small streams are becoming a flood.
If you combine 8 million cubic meters less supply with 4 million more demand, you get a gap of 12 million cubic meters, in a market Ted estimates at roughly 100 million. That's not just a local problem, it's a worldwide squeeze.
Coconut sector
The coconut sector cannot fill the gap. Sri Lanka, a major supplier of husks for substrate mixes, has already struggled for the past two years with shortages, partly blamed on the pandemic and a lack of fertilizer. India, the other big producer, has been hit by drought, which makes coconuts smaller. That problem may pass in a few months, but it is nowhere near enough to cover the losses from peat.
Alternative products
Whenever there are shortages in one ingredient, growers naturally look to alternatives. "Substrate behaves like a waterbed," Ted says. "If there's less peat, growers turn to wood fiber. But wood fiber can only be blended in up to around 30 percent, otherwise you push the limits." Canadian peat looked like it might bring relief, but recent rains and wildfires reduced the harvest. Even then, Canadian peat is a very different product from European peat: it comes from a different plant species, has its own texture, and isn't a simple one-to-one replacement. On top of that, the price is higher and transport costs are steep. Peat is bulky, so shipping becomes a real challenge. "One container of coir is equal to three containers of peat," Ted notes. "So yes, some will move across oceans, but you don't just replace millions of cubic meters like that."
So what lies ahead? Nobody can say with certainty, but Ted expects an exceptionally challenging and unforgettable season. The Dutch Association of Potting Soil and Substrate Producers has already warned members to expect shortages, and Ted echoes their advice: growers should talk to their suppliers as early as possible.
Price swings
Prices are already moving sharply. Coconut, for example, has seen wild swings. A decade ago, its price more or less followed the price of peat. But during the pandemic, demand spiked, driven by home gardening and the booming North American cannabis industry. When those markets collapsed, prices fell to record lows.
This situation has reversed again this year: The scarcity of husks in Sri Lanka and the first signs of the poor harvest in the Baltic States made it clear that, unlike usual, the last stock from last season was not replenished with new products. "In China, where blueberry cultivation has grown enormously in recent years, they noticed this first and started buying extra coconut. The price shot from 350 dollars to 600, and it still hovers there. "That is comparable to the price of sod turf. From this perspective, the market is returning to the old normal."
Ted expects prices to rise further in the coming months. "We'll see peat prices climb by several euros, and a jump of 150 dollars per ton for coir by the end of the season wouldn't surprise me," he says.
Alternative growing media
Higher prices do open the door for investment. Holding stocks of substrate is tricky because of fire risks, but expanding production capacity is suddenly attractive. "If you were thinking of investing in India, for example in drying floors, now is the time—the payback period will be short," Ted advises.
The current situation may also speed up the development of alternative growing media. Until now, the relatively low cost of substrates has held back interest. With higher prices, it becomes feasible to import from places like Indonesia or the Philippines, and to explore local by-products such as bagasse from sugarcane or agave. That said, none of these solutions will arrive in time for this season. "We're not talking about something needed in two years, we need it in two months," Ted stresses.
Not without peat
Looking further ahead, the sector cannot do without peat. Chris Blok's research makes it clear: every ingredient will be needed. Peat remains essential to produce young plants and fill pots worldwide. Even with more coir from Mexico, the Dominican Republic, or Indonesia, it won't be enough to fully replace peat. And the stakes are high. Food security depends on reliable young plant production. "We may debate whether everyone needs to eat blueberries everywhere," Ted remarks, "but the fact is that without enough substrate, we risk food shortages, hunger, and even mass migration. That makes this more than a horticultural issue, it's a global food security challenge."
In high-tech horticulture, substrate costs make up only a small percentage of total production, so growers there will continue planting, even if mixes need to be adjusted. But in lower-income countries, where growers rely on leftover supplies later in the season, the situation is harsher. This year, there will be no leftovers.
Some growers may try to stretch their substrates for an extra season, but that comes with a big risk of diseases, pests, and lower yields. The pressure on substrates will only continue to grow, and the current shortages show just how fragile the system already is. As Ted puts it, "We need every bit of substrate the world can produce."
Source: www.floraldaily.com
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