News » 27.08.2025 - Cut flowers from Kenya increasingly bypass the Netherlands
The Netherlands still plays a central role in creating a wide assortment of cut flowers for the global market. Flowers are flown in – and sometimes shipped by sea – from countries across Europe and beyond. In the Netherlands, these imports are combined with local production to supply a rich mix of single-variety bunches and mixed bouquets.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Kenya and Ethiopia focused heavily on cut roses. At the same time, many suppliers of starting material for chrysanthemums, bedding plants, and pot plants had already established operations in East Africa. The region's consistent year-round light conditions and relatively low labor costs made it attractive for labor-intensive horticulture.
During the pandemic, however, growers in Kenya realized how vulnerable the industry was by relying on a single logistics route through the Netherlands. As a result, Kenya's flower sector – along with Ethiopia's – has been actively developing new export channels to spread risk across multiple countries. Dutch bank Rabobank shows that the first effects of this shift are already visible in the 2023 trade data (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Development of the export value of cut flowers from Kenya to various markets in the period 2019-2023
Figure 2 shows a clear shift in Kenya's flower trade. Between 2019 and 2023, the share of Kenya's cut flower export value going to the European Union and the United Kingdom dropped from 75.6% to 66.3%.
This decline is not due to fewer flowers being shipped to Europe. In fact, exports to the EU and UK remained steady at around 440 million US dollars. What changed is the growth of exports to other markets. Over the same four-year period, the value of cut flowers shipped from Kenya to non-European destinations rose from 142 million to 223 million US dollars.
In other words, Kenya has successfully opened up new logistics routes, with the Middle East and Kazakhstan emerging as important growth markets for its ever-expanding cut flower supply.
Economically, horticulture is doing more than well
Overall, the economic situation in Dutch horticulture is more than satisfactory. In Rabobank's horticulture barometer, the sector scored a 7.17 in the third quarter of this year on a scale from 0 to 10. Figure 1 shows how this indicator has developed over the past five years. For more than two years now, since the second quarter of 2023, the score has remained steady at or just above 7.
Figure 1: Rabo horticulture barometer 2020-2025 has been fairly constant for a while
Compared to the previous quarter, reports from the greenhouse vegetable sector sound a little more measured. Average prices for tomatoes, peppers, and cucumbers are lower than in 2024. On the bright side, growers are facing fewer virus outbreaks, since many tomato producers have switched to resistant varieties. Pepper growers, too, seem to have largely overcome root-related problems.
Cut flower prices have stayed at a healthy level, although spring supply was somewhat lower than expected. This was mainly due to fewer tulips being available, as bulb stocks were tight. Potted plant prices and volumes remained fairly stable, though standard foliage plants are still being sold below production cost. According to Floridata, the total export value of cut flowers and potted plants in the first half of 2025 rose by around 2.7% compared to the same period last year.
Tulip growers report a good harvest, and pre-sales of bulbs look encouraging as well. Growing conditions for lilies have been excellent up to July 2025. Peonies also delivered a strong harvest, but results varied widely depending on sales strategy. Growers with fixed contracts were less affected by price pressure. Markets for daffodils and calla lilies, however, remain under some pressure.
Greenhouse construction in the Netherlands still lagging
For Dutch greenhouse construction companies, the global market is their playing field. This was once again clear at GreenTech, the annual horticultural technology fair held in Amsterdam this past June. International delegations flocked to the event, showing great enthusiasm at the stands of Dutch greenhouse builders and suppliers.
Even so, industry representatives and their trade association AVAG stress how crucial it is to keep new construction projects going in the Netherlands itself. Having projects close to the country's main hubs and knowledge centers allows innovations to be tested and showcased more effectively.
For now, however, a real upswing in the domestic market is not on the horizon. Rabobank points to CBS data on orders, order backlogs, and completed projects, which all suggest that activity in Dutch greenhouse construction remains at a low level (see Figure 4).
Figure 4: Received orders and production for horticultural greenhouses in the Netherlands in the period 2015-2024
Figure 4 shows two key indicators for greenhouse construction in the Netherlands. The first is the value of new orders received, which adds to the order backlog. The second is the actual production value of greenhouses built in that year, which reduces the backlog.
Production tends to fluctuate less than incoming orders, because construction capacity cannot be adjusted overnight. Greenhouse builders need to plan their projects well in advance, so the Dutch order backlog naturally rises and falls with incoming work.
Over the past ten years, average incoming domestic orders amounted to €77.5 million. Since the record year of 2020, when orders reached €151 million, Dutch orders in 2022–2024 have been below this ten-year average. On top of that, high inflation in recent years means that the same budget now covers a smaller greenhouse area.
The slight recovery from €53 million in 2023 to €68 million in 2024 is a positive sign, but it cannot yet be called a real turnaround.
Source: www.floraldaily.com
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