News » 18.06.2026 - Dutch horticulture sector navigates consolidation amid geopolitical uncertainty
The Dutch horticulture sector is facing another period of heightened uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are pushing energy prices upward, the latest in a series of major disruptions that have tested the sector roughly every two years since 2020. Previous shocks include the Covid-19 pandemic, which disrupted logistics chains, and the energy crisis of 2021/2022, which confronted growers with unprecedentedly high gas bills.
Accountancy and advisory firm BDO examined the current state of the sector and concluded that Dutch horticulture is in transition. Recent mergers and acquisitions confirm what BDO describes as an accelerating consolidation trend, one it expects to continue in the years ahead.
The new normal?
When conflict broke out in Iran, energy prices spiked almost immediately. BDO observes that entrepreneurs tend to respond by first scrutinising their own operations. Which strategic choices are needed to remain viable in an uncertain environment?
Typically, business owners start by focusing on their core activities before considering what strategic decisions need to be made. In this way, the impact of new external developments gradually filters through to the mergers and acquisitions market, an area where BDO advises horticultural businesses.
Kevin van Herk and his colleague Martijn Ceelaert are active as Corporate Finance advisers for BDO in the horticulture sector. Martijn notes that outside horticulture, geopolitical developments tend to affect deal-making more rapidly. "As soon as interest rates rise, it hits large billion-euro transactions and listed companies."
Both advisers observe that the accumulation of disruptions over recent years has set the horticulture sector in motion. "Geopolitical tensions almost seem to have become the new normal," says Martijn. "These developments lead entrepreneurs to ask themselves: am I ready for the future?"
Martijn Ceelaert and Kevin van Herk
Fewer growers, more deals
Depending on how business owners answer that question, they are increasingly turning to mergers or acquisitions. BDO recorded a rise in the number of transactions in 2025 compared to 2024. Kevin points to the findings of BDO's new sector report on the protected vegetable market. A separate market study covering the Dutch fruit sector was also published by BDO (link in Dutch).
According to the protected vegetable sector report, published in March 2026, the number of businesses growing vegetables under glass in the Netherlands declined sharply between 2017 and 2025. Based on preliminary 2025 figures, 695 businesses remained active that year, down from 905 in 2017. The contraction accelerated following the 2021/2022 energy crisis, as some operators exited the market while others consolidated. The total cultivated area in 2025 stood at 5,806 hectares, with tomatoes, sweet peppers, and cucumbers representing the three largest crops respectively.
Notably, the decline in cultivated area was less steep than the drop in the number of businesses. This confirms what BDO observes in the sector: the remaining growers have become considerably larger on average. Scale enlargement is not simply a side effect of consolidation, it is the driving force behind it.
Tomato growers have been particularly active in mergers and acquisitions, with the sweet pepper sector now following suit. In cucumber cultivation, deal activity appears to lag somewhat, though BDO does not offer a direct explanation for this.
Consolidation is also clearly visible outside protected vegetables, in the ornamental horticulture sector. "Here too you see consolidation taking place, and we expect significantly more to follow," says Martijn. "There are still relatively many small businesses that have been profitable over the long term, but not at the margins you would expect from companies of their size. If an owner is satisfied with that, the business can continue, but in time, these companies will also be acquired."
BDO is clear that consolidation is a long-term trend. "This will continue for another five to ten years, with peaks and troughs along the way."
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Difference in dynamics between merger and acquisition
Companies that approach each other often already know one another from the industry. They may be neighbours in the same greenhouse growing region, operate in the same crop segment, or have personal ties. Those personal relationships are crucial to the success of any merger or acquisition, Martijn emphasises. "It is very important that owners know each other well and trust each other, especially in a merger, where companies have to continue together."
From a negotiation perspective, Martijn sees clear differences between mergers and acquisitions. "Negotiations in a merger often go somewhat more smoothly, precisely because the parties have to move forward together. Discussions focus on the equity split in the new combined entity, and less cash changes hands. In an acquisition, negotiations are sometimes more hard-nosed. The overall dynamic of the negotiation tends to be quite different."
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Three starting positions for a merger or acquisition
Sometimes companies approach each other from a position of strength, recognising that together they can better address challenges around energy, labour, or crop protection. In other cases, a financially sound business initiates contact with a struggling peer, and that can be the starting point for discussions. But even when two businesses are both under financial pressure, merger talks often result, Kevin notes. "Entrepreneurs in this sector know each other and often have a good sense of how things are going for their neighbours."
In the first scenario, businesses typically aim to work together on energy or labour procurement, or to invest jointly in a new growing location. In the second situation, the stronger party takes the initiative, sometimes for strategic reasons, sometimes because it does not want to see a fellow grower fail. When two businesses are both in difficulty, a merger can sometimes be the only way forward: by sharing costs, a path to viability can emerge.
A particularly difficult year for sweet pepper growers has prompted many in that segment to reconsider their future. The sector is characterised by high specialisation; businesses cannot easily or willingly switch to a different crop. Martijn's general advice to growers is to keep a close eye on innovation at all times. "Make sure you are early to adopt future developments and that you invest in innovation to keep your business sustainable and future-ready."
Private equity is changing
Investing in sustainability and innovation is also becoming increasingly important to investors in horticulture. BDO's report notes that the share of private equity parties in horticultural acquisitions remains small and fell to 10% in 2025. The firm attributes this decline to an increase in transactions between family businesses and strategic acquisitions carried out without private equity involvement.
Misconceptions about private equity persist, Martijn observes, particularly regarding foreign investors. But compared to ten or fifteen years ago, private equity has changed considerably, Kevin stresses. "The mindset of private equity parties has shifted. More and more firms are focused on sustainable long-term growth."
BDO sees sustained interest from private equity in horticulture, including from abroad. "What many people don't realise," says Martijn, "is that the investors behind private equity funds, increasingly pension funds, impose strict requirements on where capital is deployed. They require private equity to invest in sustainable businesses. That is precisely why these funds are interested in horticulture."
In practice, this means a conversation with a private equity party today looks very different from one a decade ago. Kevin: "Where the focus used to be almost exclusively on short-term returns, questions are now also asked about energy consumption, sustainability investments, and a company's carbon footprint. Businesses that score well on those criteria will find themselves in a stronger negotiating position."
Not missing the boat
Kevin identifies artificial intelligence as a development that should not be underestimated. "There is a lot of talk about it, and I see real opportunities for businesses. It is going to bring about structural change." With a background closely connected to the horticulture sector, Kevin tracks developments carefully and sees AI being applied with increasing frequency in business operations, ranging from administrative processes to innovations in cultivation.
"AI can support growers and accelerate developments in areas such as pest management," he says. Two concrete applications are already visible in practice. "Image recognition based on AI makes it possible to detect pests at an early stage — faster and more accurately than the human eye. That is not only better for crop quality, but also helps reduce the use of crop protection products." He also sees significant potential in climate optimisation through sensor data. "Greenhouse systems that continuously monitor temperature, humidity, and CO₂ levels and automatically adjust based on that data, that is no longer a future prospect. And with current energy prices, every percentage point of efficiency gained counts."
Some growers are frontrunners in adopting these technologies; others are more cautious. Over time, the gap in innovation adoption — alongside financial position — could become another driver of mergers and acquisitions, BDO expects. An entrepreneur who has fallen behind on innovation may use a transaction as a route to securing a viable future.
The same consolidation dynamic BDO observes in protected vegetables is emerging in a very different context: the Dutch fruit sector. There too, the combination of scale advantages, innovation pressure, and market concentration is compelling entrepreneurs to make strategic choices.
Source: www.floraldaily.com
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