News » 21.05.2026 - Climate models point to potential strong El Niño event in 2026
Seasonal climate models are indicating the possible development of a strong El Niño event during 2026, with forecasts pointing to shifts in global temperature and rainfall patterns.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño is expected to develop from the middle of the year. The organization noted that confidence is increasing as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific continue to rise, although forecasting accuracy during spring remains more difficult.
El Niño is a natural warming cycle in parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that influences weather patterns globally. The event typically occurs every two to seven years and can last between nine and 12 months.
Meteorologists and climate scientists monitoring current ocean conditions said subsurface warm water anomalies moving eastward across the Pacific are consistent with early El Niño development.
"One of the key building blocks to make it fully materialize is, in fact, occurring," said California Institute for Water Resources climate scientist Daniel Swain. "We still don't know exactly what's going to happen. It's not guaranteed it'll be a super El Niño. But the potential is there for something genuinely remarkable."
According to climate specialists, stronger El Niño events can increase heatwaves, alter rainfall distribution, intensify drought conditions in some regions, and increase flood risks in others due to higher atmospheric moisture levels.
WFLA-TV Chief Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli said the Pacific Ocean's release of additional heat could influence global weather systems during the coming year.
"If the Pacific releases a lot of heat, it supercharges the climate system and wreaks havoc weather-wise," Berardelli said.
Forecasts indicate that parts of the United States could experience above-average summer temperatures and stronger heatwaves, while the Caribbean may become drier and face fewer tropical systems due to reduced Atlantic hurricane activity during El Niño conditions.
Scientists also warned that forest degradation in the Amazon, already affected by wildfires, logging, and drought, could worsen during a strong El Niño cycle.
According to Swain, the combination of El Niño-related warming and longer-term climate trends could contribute to record global temperatures during 2026 or the following year.
"All indicators are, at this point, that the next year is going to be a pretty wild year from a global climate perspective," Swain said.
University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann said El Niño events temporarily increase global temperatures before conditions typically shift back toward La Niña, which can lower temperatures for a period. He added that long-term warming trends remain linked to continued fossil fuel use.
Source: www.floraldaily.com
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